DLTQ.org

A few weeks ago I was at a conference here in Copenhagen organized by the Danish Labour Youth. The conference was about Russia, and particularly where Russia is heading now.

I was kind of surprised when I saw that the programme showed that the Russian ambassador to Denmark was to appear and enter a dialogue about Russia. And surely enough, I was not surprised when the Ambassador ‘regretfully’ had not been able to appear after all. I suppose that makes sense, in a Russian kind of way. Why enter the lion’s den?

The Georgian ambassador however did come, and during his presentation/monologue he covered the Russia-Georgia conflict in so many aspects that it was really looking like a maze. Having been in Georgia last year, I actually do think that the whole incident was a maze, and it is increasingly difficult for anyone to get an objective view of ‘what really happened’.

But the bigger picture, for me, is not what happened in those tragic days in August, but what will happen now in the region. It is clear to me that South Ossetia and Abkhazia probably never will become a part of Georgia again. Georgia’s NATO application has been delayed, and we can only hope that the country manages in other ways to establish closer ties to the European Union. Russia will probably not risk another direct attack on Georgia, although there are several people speculating on just that.

What I find interesting in all of this is how our tone towards Russia is somewhat quite different to that of China. Both countries have massive abuses of human rights. Both countries are very important trade partners to the EU. Both countries have a growing economy (although Russia is suffering hard from low oil price and the financial crisis situation). My own country, Norway, will have very interesting discussions with Russia about the access to resources in the Barents Sea area. Maybe this year, or next year, so much ice has melted that transport can travel between Asia and Europe via the north. Imagine the geopolitical ramifications of that.

Nobody wants a cold war rhetoric. Most people realize that we need to keep Russia as a close ally, instead of ‘freezing it out’ because we happen to dislike some of its methods. It is, however, a tricky line. When do we tell our allies of, and how do we do it? How can we mark our differences of opinion without letting things escalate into a war of words?

Personally I must admit that I am looking a lot towards the new leadership of the USA to see where they are taking things. How they will evolve their relationship with Russia, which will ultimately affect Russia’s relationship with everyone else. I hope that we have more visionaries in the European Union system/bureaucracy, and that Europe will also enter a new level of discussion. One where the grass-roots is seen and treated as key, one that looks forward, and takes an active stanze towards the rest of the world. But I guess all that is for another post.